Bitumen Supply and Demand
Last updated: 2026-09-30
Global bitumen supply reached approximately 128 million metric tons in 2024, while demand hit 126 million tons, leaving a thin surplus of about 2 million tons that keeps prices volatile. Consumption is projected to grow to 134 million tons by 2027 at a CAGR of roughly 2.1%, driven by road infrastructure spending in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. In practical terms, the market is balanced-to-tight: any refinery outage or export restriction of 500,000+ tons can move prices by $20–40 per ton within weeks.
Global Bitumen Supply: Where Does It Come From?
Bitumen is a by-product of heavy crude refining, so supply is structurally tied to crude slates and refinery economics rather than standalone demand signals. Global production is concentrated in four hubs: China, North America, the Middle East, and South Korea, which together account for roughly 62% of world supply.
| Region | 2024 Supply (M tons) | Share | Key Exporters |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 38 | 30% | Domestic-first, growing exports |
| North America | 24 | 19% | US, Canada |
| Middle East | 22 | 17% | UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iran |
| South Korea | 14 | 11% | SK Energy, S-Oil, Hyundai |
| Southeast Asia | 11 | 9% | Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia |
| Europe | 9 | 7% | Spain, Italy, Germany |
| Rest of World | 10 | 7% | India, Russia, Latin America |
Three supply-side dynamics matter most for buyers in 2025:
- Crude slate dependency: Refiners producing penetration-grade 60/70 and 40/50 bitumen need heavy, sour crude. When refiners switch to lighter slates for better fuel margins, bitumen output drops even if crude throughput is unchanged.
- Refinery conversions: Several European and Japanese refineries have converted to biofuel or petrochemical production since 2020, removing an estimated 4–6 million tons of annual bitumen capacity permanently.
- Export logistics concentration: About 55% of seaborne bitumen trade passes through just four ports: Jebel Ali (UAE), Ulsan (South Korea), Singapore, and Bandar Abbas (Iran). A single port congestion event can add 7–14 days to delivery schedules.
Supply is not elastic in the short run. Bringing new bitumen capacity online requires 18–36 months of refinery investment, which is why the market reacts sharply to even small disruptions.
Global Bitumen Demand: Regional Breakdown
Demand is overwhelmingly infrastructure-driven. Roughly 85% of global bitumen goes into road construction and maintenance, with the remaining 15% split between roofing, waterproofing, industrial coatings, and adhesives.
| Region | 2024 Demand (M tons) | 2027 Forecast (M tons) | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia-Pacific | 48 | 54 | 4.0% |
| North America | 23 | 24 | 1.4% |
| Europe | 18 | 18 | 0.0% |
| Middle East & Africa | 17 | 20 | 5.5% |
| Latin America | 11 | 12 | 2.9% |
| Eurasia | 9 | 9 | 0.0% |
| Total | 126 | 134 | 2.1% |
Key demand drivers by region:
- Asia-Pacific (+4.0% CAGR): India alone consumes 8.5 million tons annually and is adding 10,000–12,000 km of highways per year. Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines are also expanding road budgets by 8–15% annually.
- Middle East & Africa (+5.5% CAGR): The fastest-growing region. Saudi Arabia's NEOM and Vision 2030 road programs, plus Nigeria's and Kenya's road funds, are pulling in 1.5–2 million tons of additional imports per year.
- North America (+1.4% CAGR): Mature but stable. US infrastructure law funding released $110 billion for roads and bridges through 2026, supporting 20–22 million tons of annual consumption.
- Europe (flat): Strict recycling targets mean up to 70% of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) is now reused in some countries, capping virgin bitumen demand.
The critical demand-side shift: buyers are no longer just price-sensitive — they are origin-sensitive. Sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan bitumen have forced India, Pakistan, and parts of Africa to pay premiums of $15–30 per ton for UAE, South Korean, or Singaporean material.
Supply vs Demand Balance: Is the Market Tight or Loose?
The headline number — 128M supply vs 126M demand — looks comfortable, but the effective balance is much tighter because supply is not evenly distributed and not all of it is tradeable.
| Year | Supply (M tons) | Demand (M tons) | Balance | Avg Price (FOB Singapore, $/ton) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 121 | 118 | +3 | 520 |
| 2023 | 124 | 122 | +2 | 470 |
| 2024 | 128 | 126 | +2 | 440 |
| 2025 (est.) | 130 | 129 | +1 | 425–460 |
| 2026 (proj.) | 132 | 131 | +1 | 430–470 |
What the balance sheet doesn't show:
- Iranian supply uncertainty: Iran exports 4–5 million tons annually, mostly to China, India, and the UAE (for blending). Any tightening of sanctions removes this volume from the market and pushes prices up $20–35 per ton.
- China's dual role: China is both the largest producer (38M tons) and a growing importer. When Chinese domestic prices rise above ¥3,800/ton (~$525), importers switch to South Korean and Singaporean cargoes, tightening supply elsewhere.
- Seasonality: Demand in the Northern Hemisphere peaks from April to October. Winter months see demand drop 20–30%, which is when smart buyers lock in annual contracts at 5–10% below peak pricing.
- Freight costs: A 15–20% spike in freight rates (common during geopolitical disruptions) adds $25–40 per ton to CIF prices even when FOB prices are flat.
Bottom line for buyers: the market has a structural surplus of only 1–2 million tons, which is less than 1.5% of global demand. That is not a buffer — it is a warning. Any supply disruption of 1 million tons or more flips the market to deficit within a quarter.
Price Trends and What Drives Them
Bitumen prices track four variables: crude benchmarks (Brent/Dubai), regional supply tightness, freight, and currency.
| Benchmark | Q1 2024 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FOB Singapore 60/70 | $455 | $435 | -4.4% |
| FOB South Korea 60/70 | $470 | $450 | -4.3% |
| CIF India (JNPT) | $520 | $495 | -4.8% |
| FOB Jebel Ali 60/70 | $445 | $430 | -3.4% |
| Bulk Bitumen CIF West Africa | $610 | $590 | -3.3% |
| Drummed Bitumen CIF East Africa | $680 | $660 | -2.9% |
Price drivers to watch:
- Crude correlation: Bitumen moves with Dubai crude at roughly 0.85 correlation. A $10/bbl crude move translates to a $45–55/ton bitumen move within 3–6 weeks.
- Drummed vs bulk premium: Drummed bitumen carries a $60–90/ton premium over bulk due to packaging, handling, and lower vessel efficiency. For buyers under 5,000 tons/year, drums are often the only viable option.
- Payment terms impact: LC at sight vs 30-day credit changes effective pricing by $8–15/ton. Cash buyers consistently get better FOB rates.
- Seasonal arbitrage: Buying in November–February for April–September delivery typically saves $25–40/ton versus spot buying in peak season.
FAQ: Bitumen Supply and Demand
Q1: Is bitumen supply increasing or decreasing globally?
Supply is increasing slowly — from 121 million tons in 2022 to 128 million tons in 2024 — but the growth rate (~2%) is barely ahead of demand. Most new supply comes from Middle East and Asian refiners, while European and Japanese capacity continues to shrink.
Q2: Which region has the highest bitumen demand growth?
The Middle East & Africa region leads at a 5.5% CAGR, followed by Asia-Pacific at 4.0%. Africa's growth is driven by road funds in Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia, while the Middle East is powered by Saudi and UAE infrastructure programs.
Q3: How much does a 1 million ton supply disruption affect prices?
A 1 million ton disruption — roughly 0.8% of global supply — typically moves prices by $15–30 per ton within 4–6 weeks. The 2024 Iranian export tightening caused exactly this pattern in Indian and Chinese markets.
Q4: What is the price difference between bulk and drummed bitumen?
Drummed bitumen carries a $60–90 per ton premium over bulk. For a 1,000-ton order, that is $60,000–90,000 in extra cost — which is why buyers above 5,000 tons/year almost always switch to bulk vessels or flexitanks.
Q5: What is the best time of year to buy bitumen?
The November–February window offers the best pricing, with discounts of $25–40 per ton versus peak-season (April–September) rates. Buyers who lock annual contracts in Q4 typically save 5–10% on total procurement costs.
Calculate Your Bitumen Costs Before You Buy
Supply is tight, demand is rising, and a 1.5% surplus means every procurement decision matters. Before you negotiate your next cargo, run the numbers: FOB price, freight, drumming, port charges, LC costs, and inland delivery all add up fast.
Use the 6Tar cost calculator to model your CIF landed cost per ton in under 60 seconds — compare bulk vs drummed, Singapore vs Jebel Ali vs Ulsan origins, and spot vs contract pricing side by side. Buyers who calculate first consistently save $20–50 per ton on every order.