Asphalt Price Index
Last updated: 2026-10-01
Asphalt Price Index: Global Benchmarks, Regional Spreads, and Q3 2025 Forecast
The asphalt price index currently sits at $535 per metric ton (Singapore FOB, 60/70 penetration grade), up 4.8% year-to-date but down 11% from the July 2022 peak of $601/ton. In USD terms, bulk asphalt (penetration grade 60/70, drummed or bulk vessel) traded in a band of $490–$575/ton across major export hubs in Q2 2025, with the spread between Rotterdam and Singapore narrowing to just $22/ton. For buyers, that means the index is range-bound: softer than 2022, firmer than 2020, and highly sensitive to Brent crude and seasonal construction demand.
What the Asphalt Price Index Actually Measures
The asphalt price index tracks the weighted average price of penetration-grade and viscosity-grade bitumen at key export and import hubs. It is not a single number — it is a composite built from:
- Export FOB assessments: Singapore, South Korea (Ulsan/Yeosu), Iran (Bandar Abbas), and Bahrain
- Import CIF assessments: Rotterdam (ARA), Houston, Mumbai, and Santos
- Feedstock linkage: straight-run vacuum residue and Brent crude
- Benchmark grades: 60/70 (Asia, Middle East), 50/70 (Europe), PG 64-22 (US)
| Driver | Weight in Index | Typical Impact on Price |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude price | ~65% correlation | ±$12/ton per $5/bbl |
| Vacuum residue (VGO) spread | 15% | ±$8/ton |
| Seasonal demand (Q2–Q3) | 10% | +$15–30/ton peak |
| Freight & vessel availability | 5% | ±$10/ton |
| Currency (USD strength) | 5% | ±3% on non-USD buyers |
The index is not a retail price. Retail asphalt (hot mix, paving grade) in the US ranges from $110–$160 per ton for the mix itself, while the binder (bitumen) component is what the index tracks. This distinction matters: when buyers search "asphalt price index," they usually want the bitumen binder price, not the finished mix.
Global Asphalt Price Index by Region (Q2 2025)
The table below compares FOB/CIF assessments across the six most-traded hubs. All figures are USD per metric ton, bulk vessel, 60/70 grade unless noted.
| Hub | Benchmark | FOB/CIF | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 60/70 FOB | FOB | $512 | $535 | +4.5% |
| South Korea | 60/70 FOB | FOB | $505 | $528 | +4.6% |
| Iran | 60/70 FOB | FOB | $470 | $490 | +4.3% |
| Bahrain | 60/70 FOB | FOB | $498 | $518 | +4.0% |
| Rotterdam | 50/70 CIF | CIF | $545 | $557 | +2.2% |
| Houston | PG 64-22 | FOB | $560 | $572 | +2.1% |
Key observation: Asian export hubs (Singapore, Korea, Iran) remain $20–$40/ton cheaper than European and US Gulf assessment. For a 30,000 MT cargo, that spread equals $600,000–$1.2 million in savings — enough to justify longer freight routes from Asia to West Africa or Latin America.
- Singapore vs. Rotterdam: $22/ton (narrowest in 18 months)
- Iran vs. Houston: $82/ton (widest, driven by sanctions discount)
- Korea vs. Singapore: $7/ton (effectively parity)
- Bahrain vs. Rotterdam: $39/ton
The Iran discount is structural: sanctions, payment friction, and insurance costs push Iranian FOB down, but buyers face longer transit and documentation risk. Traders typically price this at $60–$90/ton below Singapore to clear cargo.
Bitumen Price Trends: 2022–2025
Asphalt is a byproduct of crude refining, specifically the bottom of the barrel. That means its price index is tethered to Brent, but with a lag of 4–8 weeks and with refinery margins compressing or expanding the spread.
| Period | Brent (avg) | Singapore 60/70 FOB | Bitumen/Brent Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (peak) | $99/bbl | $601/ton | 6.07 |
| 2023 (avg) | $82/bbl | $510/ton | 6.22 |
| 2024 (avg) | $80/bbl | $505/ton | 6.31 |
| Q1 2025 | $78/bbl | $512/ton | 6.56 |
| Q2 2025 | $76/bbl | $535/ton | 7.04 |
What this tells you: The bitumen/Brent ratio has risen from 6.07 to 7.04 over three years. Even as crude softened, asphalt prices firmed. The reason is refinery economics: refineries are maximizing distillate (diesel, jet) and minimizing fuel oil/bitumen output, tightening bitumen supply despite flat crude.
For buyers, this is the single most important signal in the asphalt price index: the spread is widening, not narrowing. Waiting for a "crude crash" to lower asphalt prices may not work if the ratio keeps climbing.
Asphalt Price Index Forecast: Q3–Q4 2025
Using a Brent base case of $72–$80/bbl and a bitumen/Brent ratio of 6.8–7.1, here is the forward curve:
| Quarter | Singapore FOB (base) | Bear Case ($68 Brent) | Bull Case ($85 Brent) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $540–$555 | $510 | $585 |
| Q4 2025 | $520–$540 | $490 | $570 |
| Q1 2026 | $500–$525 | $475 | $555 |
- Bullish ($585+): Refinery outages, OPEC+ supply cut, strong monsoon-delayed demand in India/SE Asia
- Bearish ($490–): Brent below $68, China property slowdown cutting road construction, new Middle East export capacity (Iraq, Kuwait)
- Neutral ($520–$545): Base case — seasonal demand offset by adequate supply
Trading implication: Q3 is historically the tightest quarter (Northern Hemisphere paving season). If you need 10,000+ MT for a Q3 project, locking in now at $535–$545 CIF is prudent. Q4 usually softens by $15–$25/ton as demand fades.
How to Use the Asphalt Price Index for Procurement
The index is only useful if you convert it into a landed cost. Here is the formula buyers should use:
Landed Cost = FOB (index) + Freight + Insurance + Duty + Port Handling + Inland Transport
| Cost Component | USD/ton | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FOB Singapore (60/70) | $535 | Q2 2025 index |
| Ocean freight | $45 | 30,000 MT vessel, USAC route |
| Insurance | $3 | 0.5% of CIF |
| Duty + port | $18 | Nigeria import |
| Inland transport | $12 | Port to site |
| Landed cost | $613/ton |
At $613/ton, a buyer comparing a $490/ton Iranian cargo (with $60 freight and $25 risk premium) sees $575/ton landed — but with documentation and insurance risk. The index helps you quantify that trade-off: $38/ton savings vs. sanctions exposure.
- Track the ratio: bitumen/Brent above 7.0 = buy early; below 6.3 = wait
- Compare hubs: Singapore vs. Korea vs. Bahrain — spreads of $7–$39/ton matter on 30,000 MT
- Time the season: Q3 premium is real; Q4 discount is real
- Check freight: A $10/ton freight swing equals a $300,000 difference on one cargo
- Lock FX: Non-USD buyers should hedge; a 3% currency move erases a 3% price gain
FAQ: Asphalt Price Index
Q1: What is the current asphalt price index in 2025?
The global benchmark (Singapore FOB, 60/70 penetration grade) is $535 per metric ton as of Q2 2025. This is up 4.5% from Q1 but down 11% from the 2022 peak of $601/ton. European (Rotterdam CIF) and US Gulf (Houston FOB) assessments sit higher at $557/ton and $572/ton respectively.
Q2: Why is the bitumen price index rising when crude oil is falling?
Because the bitumen/Brent ratio has climbed from 6.07 (2022) to 7.04 (Q2 2025). Refineries are maximizing diesel and jet output, leaving less vacuum residue for bitumen. Even with Brent at $76/bbl, tight bitumen supply pushes the index up. The index is following refinery economics, not just crude.
Q3: Which region has the cheapest asphalt for export?
Iran is the cheapest on paper at $490/ton FOB, but sanctions, payment friction, and insurance add $60–$90/ton in real cost and risk. Singapore at $535/ton and South Korea at $528/ton are the most reliable competitive export hubs. Bahrain at $518/ton is a middle option with shorter transit to East Africa and India.
Q4: How much does a 30,000 MT asphalt cargo cost?
At the Q2 2025 Singapore index of $535/ton, the FOB cargo value is $16.05 million. Add freight ($45/ton), insurance ($3/ton), and port/duty ($18/ton) for a landed cost of ~$18.4 million ($613/ton). A cheaper Iranian cargo at $490/ton FOB lands at $17.25 million ($575/ton) but carries sanction risk.
Q5: Is the asphalt price index expected to fall in Q4 2025?
Yes, seasonally. Q4 typically softens by $15–$25/ton as Northern Hemisphere paving demand fades. Base case for Q4 2025 is $520–$540/ton Singapore FOB, with a bear case of $490/ton if Brent drops below $68/bbl. If you can time procurement to Q4, you may save 3–5% versus Q3 peak pricing.
Ready to Calculate Your Landed Asphalt Cost?
Use the 6Tar cost calculator to convert the asphalt price index into a real landed cost for your port, volume, and grade. Enter your FOB hub, cargo size (MT), destination port, and freight rate — and get an instant USD/ton landed cost with duty, insurance, and inland transport included. Stop guessing at spreads; price your next 30,000 MT cargo in under 60 seconds with 6Tar.